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 National Science
Foundation Award #0522433 |
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Bounded Conflict: The Consumer Price Index and American Political Economy, 1880 - 1985 |
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| Investigator(s): |
Thomas Stapleford (PI)
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| Sponsor: |
University of Notre Dame, IN 46556 5746317432
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| Start Date/Expiration Date |
2005-07-01 to 2006-06-30 (amended 2005-08-02) |
| Awarded Amount to Date: |
$49,992 |
| Abstract: Bounded Conflict:
The Consumer Price Index and American Political Economy, 1880 - 1985
Since 1950, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been one of the most potent economic
statistics, largely because of its incorporation into automatic escalator clauses in union
contracts and government programs (including everything from tax brackets to
social security payments). Yet the CPI has also been very controversial: throughout the last
fifty years, economists, labor officials, politicians have debated the significance and accuracy of
the index without reaching a clear conclusion. In an award-winning dissertation, Thomas Stapleford
explored the history of the CPI and its role in American political economy, describing how and why
this ambiguous and embattled statistic became a central part of labor relations, such that by 1953
a Congressional committee could label it "the most important single statistic" in the United States.
Building on that project, this research extends the analysis, both chronologically (carrying it
through the early 1970s, when Congress began to place automatic escalator clauses in
government programs) and comparatively (by examining the role of price indexes in other
countries and the formal adoption of other statistics into government programs). This new work
will form the basis for a book manuscript.
Intellectual Merit
Although economic statistics are a central part of the modern state, historians are only
beginning to integrate historical study of these artifacts with 20th century political, social, and
economic history, and no such narratives exist for the United States. Turning to a different field,
economists have written several short histories of price index theory, but have not examined the
CPI's historical role in industrial relations or economic policy. By analyzing both theoretical
debates about price indexes and the changing political function of the CPI, this project demonstrates
how a rich historical account of economic statistics can illuminate questions in American history,
such as how the form of economic statistics both reflected and shaped national economic policy,
and the history of economics, such as why the CPI remained at odds with neoclassical price index
theory through most of the 20th century. This study addresses broader issues, including the role of
technical expertise and interest-group pressure in public policy, and tensions between reliance on
highly complex statistics in government and the traditional values of liberal democracy .
Broader Impact
The wide resonance of these questions and the continuing debate over the nature of
the CPI suggest the potentially large audience for this work. As the only historical
analysis of the political context and function of the CPI, for example, this research will be useful
for public policy analysts and politicians. The investigator intends to attract a general
readership beyond academic historians by keeping the monograph relatively short (~90,000
words) and confining technical details to an appendix or academic journal articles. Furthermore,
some of the key conclusions will be presented in more popular forums (e.g., articles in political
magazines), and thereby contribute to the continuing public discussion about statistics, public
policy, and the cost of living. |
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| NSF Org: |
SES - Division of Social and Economic Sciences |
| Award Number: |
0522433 |
| Award Instrument: |
Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Ronald Rainger
SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences
SBE Directorate for Social, Behavioral & Economic Sciences
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| NSF Program(s): |
Hist & Philosophy of SET |
| Field Application(s): |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
UNASSIGNED, 0000 |
| Program Element Code(s): |
1353 |
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